AIS Energy, Maritime, Aviation

Over the next few years, the global economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace, driven by emerging markets in Asia and Africa even as advanced economies face headwinds. Although growth rates are somewhat below the pre‑pandemic levels, investment in infrastructure, digitalization and energy transition will remain important drivers of output across many regions. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has pointed to supportive economic activity as a reason to raise its oil demand outlook for 2026. At the same time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) sees subdued demand growth reflecting slower structural momentum and energy efficiency gains. Taken together, these signals suggest the economy will continue expanding, but the pace of growth will remain modest, which has important implications for energy demand and pricing dynamics.

On the demand side for oil and gas, structural shifts are underway that will affect medium‑term consumption, particularly through to 2029. OPEC’s most recent outlook indicates global oil demand will average around 106.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, down from prior estimates of 108 million bpd, and rise to about 111.6 million bpd by 2029. This revision downward reflects slower growth in China, the increasing electrification of transport, and substitution trends in heavy industry. Meanwhile, on the gas side, several major energy companies and traders anticipate sustained or even rising demand for natural gas (especially LNG) well into the 2030s, driven by industrial growth and fuel switching away from coal. Thus, while growth in hydrocarbons is no longer explosive, consumption is expected to remain robust in many regions.

In terms of pricing for oil during 2026‑29, the outlook appears challenged by rising supply and slower demand growth. The U.S. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that Brent crude may average around USD 52 per barrel in 2026 under current conditions, citing inventory accumulation and production growth outside OPEC+. In this context, prices may see periodic spikes when supply disruptions or geopolitical tensions occur, but absent such shocks, the baseline suggests a lower price environment than recent highs. For gas, the outlook is more mixed: with LNG export capacity expanding and demand rising in developing markets, prices may remain elevated relative to oil, though volatility will likely increase.

From an investor and project financing viewpoint, the changing demand and price environment to 2029 has meaningful implications. For oil and gas companies, capex discipline will remain critical as long‑term growth prospects soften and transition risks increase. The downward revision in medium‑term demand for oil underscores the importance of competing supply sources, service cost control and flexibility in upstream operations. On the gas side, firms with access to export infrastructure and competitive supply cost will benefit, particularly as natural gas becomes a bridge fuel in many economies’ decarbonization strategies. In this context, the fact that oil demand may not peak until the early 2030s, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie, adds some runway albeit with increased headwinds.

Regionally, the outlook to 2029 will diverge materially. Emerging markets in South and Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa are expected to account for the bulk of demand growth, both in oil and gas, as industrialization continues and energy access expands. OPEC notes that while China’s demand growth is slowing, India and several African economies are stepping in as growth centres. In mature economies, however, demand growth is weak or plateauing, meaning incremental volumes will come increasingly from non‑OECD markets. This dynamic will shift the geographical patterns of upstream investment, shipping routes, LNG flows and downstream infrastructure, all of which have direct relevance for maritime, logistics and project businesses.

Looking ahead to the 2026‑29 timeframe, the combined story of moderate global economic growth, resilient albeit slower hydrocarbon demand and a structurally lower price baseline implies a business environment for the energy sector that is less about runaway growth and more about selective execution. Projects in LNG, gas infrastructure and petrochemicals are likely to offer stronger returns than new large‑scale crude‑oil upstream expansions. Price stability may improve but volatility will remain a feature, particularly amid geopolitical risk, sanctions, supply chain disruptions and transition dynamics. For companies like yours focusing on project delivery in frontier and underserved markets, the key will be agility, cost‑effectiveness and alignment with the evolving energy mix — not simply chasing volume growth.